London Calling: "Democrats Must Choose Obama"
Financial Times
April 20, 2008
Barack Obama goes into Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary as strong favourite, whatever happens, to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. Yet the vote could still go either way.
This is a sign of how close this race has been and how deeply it has divided the party.
Mr Obama and Hillary Clinton are both strong candidates and each appeals powerfully to distinct segments of Democratic support. This has heightened the risk of bitter division.
After Tuesday's vote, the Democrats should move quickly to affirm Mr Obama's nomination. That is not just because his lead in elected delegates is already unassailable and the contest should be brought to a swift conclusion. It is also because he is, in fact, the better candidate.
The contenders' differences on policy look small and in reality are even smaller.
Their disagreement on healthcare mandates, for instance, frequently emphasised by Mrs Clinton, is of little practical significance. A mandate to obtain insurance, as proposed by Mrs Clinton, does not achieve universal coverage unless enforced with punitive sanctions, which she does not advocate.
Both candidates, in effect, are proposing near-universal coverage. The virtues of their schemes (much improved access, no denial of insurance to those with pre-existing conditions) as well as the defects (weak control of costs) are much the same.
In almost every area of policy, whether their thinking is good (as with improved support for displaced workers), bad (their opposition to liberal trade) or too vague to say (Iraq), there is little to choose between them.
As voters understood all along, this has therefore been a contest of character, temperament and (sadly but inevitably) identity. Mr Obama's most loyal supporters, once they were persuaded that he might actually succeed, have been black. Mrs Clinton's, certain at the start she would win, are women.
Mr Obama has fought a brilliant campaign, out-organising his opponent, raising more money, and convincing undecided Democrats as well as the country at large that he was more likeable, more straightforward and more worthy of trust.
On form, he is a spell-binding orator and holds arena-sized audiences in thrall. He is given to airy exhortations, it is true, but genuinely seeks consensus and has cross-party appeal.
Mrs Clinton's campaign, in contrast, has been a shambles. She and her team expected to have it all sewn up long ago; they made no plans for a long struggle, ran short of money and had to reorganise on the run.
Her speaking style is pedestrian, when it is not actually grating. Those who dislike her tend to do so with a passion: her disapproval ratings started high and after months of campaigning are climbing still. It is a tribute to her tenacity and to the loyalty she commands in the party that her fate was not sealed weeks ago.
How much the way that a campaign is run tells you about a candidate's fitness to be president is debatable Ð but it does tell you something, especially if the candidate with the misfiring strategy is running on a claim of management expertise.
In fact, the campaigns have underlined the contenders' respective strengths and weaknesses.
Mr Obama's consistent and relaxed demeanour attested to his coolness (in both senses, his swooning young admirers would add); it seemed to affirm his authenticity. In contrast,
Mrs Clinton's hyperactive advisers dressed her in a new personality each day, sometimes several in the course of an interview. They wheeled out Bill Clinton, to remind people of the 1990s, then reeled him back, to help them forget.
Too many course corrections, not enough course.
Mr Obama has had some travails Ð over his association with Jeremiah Wright, the ranting demagogue pastor, and most recently over condescending remarks about small-town Democratic politics.
In the first case, he responded with a masterly speech about race that may even have improved his standing. In the second, he was evasive and unconvincing Ð yet the public seems to have given him the benefit of the doubt.
The US has the urge to be inspired a little. Electing the country's first woman president ought to be very inspiring. But not this woman Ð with her dynastic baggage and knack for antagonising the undecided Ð running against this man.
The Democratic party has waited an awfully long time for a politician like Barack Obama. Enough already.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Clinton Faces Uphill Battle in Remaining Primaries
Congressional Quarterly
April 15, 2008
A series of Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls in three upcoming primary states Ð Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina -
do not hold good news for Hillary Clinton. In surveys conducted April 10-14,
Clinton led Obama 46 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania and now trails him 40 percent to 35 percent in Indiana. In North Carolina, Obama maintains the kind of lead he has had all along, 47 percent to 34 percent over Clinton. The margins of error were 4 percent. The Indiana result is at odds with an April 13 SurveyUSA poll that had Clinton ahead by 16 points.
And a Franklin & Marshall poll conducted April 8-13 similarly had
Clinton and Obama in a tight race in Pennsylvania, with Clinton holding a 46 percent to 40 percent lead among likely primary voters with 14 percent undecided. Clinton led in this poll 51 percent to 35 percent in March. The margin of error among likely voters is 5.1 percent.
Pennsylvania votes next Tuesday, and Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.
But if the LA Times/Bloomberg and Franklin & Marshall numbers hold true as far as the popular vote,
this is pretty bad news for Clinton who needs not just a win in Pennsylvania, but a big win especially since a CQ Politics district-by-district analysis of Pennsylvania predicts that her delegate margin over Obama, at best would be very slim. However, the poll indicates that these races are still very volatile with 12 percent undecided in Pennsylvania, 19 percent in Indiana and 17 percent in North Carolina. And the Pennsylvania polls have been all over the lot with some having her regain her double-digit leads and others showing her halting her slide, but with more modest leads over Obama than she enjoyed last month.
On the question of who had more honesty and integrity, voters favored Obama over Clinton by 47 percent to 26 percent.
The survey straddled the period in which the story of Obama's "bitter" remark broke, so it did not completely reflect whether or not that controversy had an impact.
Obama keeps rolling as Clinton running out of time
After a tough six-week stretch of campaign gaffes, roaring controversies and heightened scrutiny, Barack Obama's presidential bid appears as strong as ever -- and rival Hillary Clinton is running out of time to change the script.
Reuters | Apr 18, 2008
Obama has expanded his lead on Clinton in many national polls and gained ground on her in the next battleground of Pennsylvania ahead of Tuesday's vote, despite furors over his remarks on small-town residents and inflammatory comments by his former pastor.
Clinton's image appeared to take a heavier hit after wrongly claiming she faced sniper fire in Bosnia in 1996. A Washington Post poll this week found more Americans have an unfavorable impression of her than at any time since she entered the national limelight in 1992.
"It hasn't been a bed of roses for Obama. He's had some problems. But she is the one whose negatives are going up," said Phil Noble, head of the South Carolina New Democrats group and an Obama supporter.
Obama has a nearly unassailable lead on the New York senator in delegates to the August nominating convention and in popular votes won in the first three months of the primary battle.
Clinton hopes a big Pennsylvania win ignites a strong run through the final nine contests, fundamentally reordering the race and giving her fresh evidence to argue she is the strongest candidate to face Republican John McCain in November's presidential election.
But polls show Obama has whittled her once substantial double-digit lead in Pennsylvania to single digits. A Zogby poll on Friday put her lead at 4 points, a Rasmussen poll showed it at 3 points and a Los Angeles Times poll earlier this week had it at 5 points.
A narrow Clinton win probably would be enough to keep her in the race, but would not stem another round of calls among Democrats for her to step aside and let Obama concentrate on the race with McCain.
OBAMA LEAD GROWS
Obama has expanded his national lead in several polls. A Reuters/Zogby poll released earlier this week put it at 13 points, and a daily Gallup tracking poll had it at 7 points, down from his high of 11 earlier in the week.
Obama continues to steadily win endorsements from superdelegates, the nearly 800 Democratic Party insiders who are free to back any candidate and who hold the key to winning the nomination.
"It doesn't seem like she has the power to alter the dynamic of the race anymore," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN.
Rosenberg said Clinton's scenario for winning the Democratic nomination was no longer believable.
"In every way you can measure it, he's won more delegates, he's won more states, he's raised more money, he has a better organization -- all the metrics one has of how to evaluate the race indicate he is winning and she is losing," he said.
But so far, none of the controversies appears to have the strength to derail Obama.
"Voters in the end may not be that agitated about these kinds of things," said Linda Fowler, a political analyst at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. "They really are more concerned about the war and the economy and which candidate is more effective."
Clinton's Negatives at Record High
Poll Finds Majority of Americans Have Unfavorable Opinion of Clinton
ABC NEWS April 16, 2008
Clinton is favored to win Pennsylvania, but a new ABC NEWS/Washington Post poll finds her support nationally has further declined.
Likely Democratic voters, 51-41 percent, say they want Obama to win the nomination his biggest advantage to date. Obama has also cleared the "electability" hurdle in Democratic minds
62 percent say he is more likely to win than Clinton.
In more bad news for Clinton,
58 percent of Americans polled said she is not honest and trustworthy. Obama beats her on this attribute by a 23-point margin.
"She flip flops on issues too much and seems like a professional politician whose goal is just to get elected at any cost," said Gene Louin, a Pennsylvania voter standing in line at Geno's Steaks in South Philadelphia.
A record high of 54 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the New York senator, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Her husband,
former President Bill Clinton's unfavorability rating is almost as high at 51 percent his highest level since leaving office.
"I love Bill Clinton but I'm not happy with the way he has conducted himself," said Mina Bannett of Cherry Hill, N.J.
Obama Effectively Distanced Himself From Pastor
Clinton currently trails Obama in the number of states won, the popular vote and the delegate count, according to ABC News' delegate scorecard.
More Democrats than ever, however 41 percent say the race is mostly negative, and those voters blame Clinton for the race's negativity by a nearly 4-to-1 ratio.
"I blame Hillary," said Carrie Jacobson of Wynnewood, Pa. "She's looking for anything she can to sling mud at Obama any little thing."
John Taylorings, a Pennsylvania college student, argued Clinton started going negative with her television ad questioning which candidate voters would rather have as president if a 3 a.m. phone call came in to the White House.
"I think it's all a bunch of shenanigans," Taylorings said.
As the Democratic battle continues on into spring, half of Democrats now say their candidates are "arguing about things that really aren't that important," instead of real issues.
John McCain Should Go on Vacation, Hillary Clinton is Doing His Job for Him
Arianna Huffington, The Huffington Post
April 14, 2008 | 01:41 PM (EST)
It has been an article of faith in the Democratic Party over the last twenty years that when small town, working class whites vote for Republicans they're voting against their economic self-interest. And why do they do that? Because
every four years the Republican Party comes into those small towns and, to distract folks from the worsening economic situation, trots out a bunch of divisive, hot button social issues: "Let's not talk about why you don't have a job, can't afford health care, or can't send your kids to college; let's talk about gay marriage, school prayer, illegal immigration, and flag burning amendments." And Hillary is following the blueprint.
John McCain may as well take the next six months off, raise some money, maybe take a vacation -- because Hillary Clinton is out there doing his work for him.
Andrew Sullivan points out that of the top ten gun-owning states in the country, Obama has won six -- Hillary has won one.
But, of course, this isn't about guns or religion or fear of foreigners. It's about, as David Axelrod says, the (pardon the expression) bitterness and mistrust that stem from voters being "tired of politicians who come around at election time and express their solicitude as part of a tactic and don't follow through on it."
Jumping on the GOP talking points bandwagon, Clinton's new Mark Penn, Geoff Garin said: "These are the kinds of attitudes that have created a gulf between Democrats and lots of small-town and heartland voters that we've been working very, very hard to bridge." Karl Rove, who has devoted his life to making people believe that such a gulf exists, couldn't have scripted it better himself.
If Clinton's Rovian stoop-to-anything tactics succeed -- not at beating Obama but at making him an easier target for McCain -- the price will be paid by the very small-town Americans she is now pandering to. Americans already banished to economic oblivion by the same cynical tactics she's employing will be rewarded with four more years of downward economic mobility.
Carter and Gore to end Clinton bid
Chris Stephen, The Scotsman, 14 April
Obama's campaign has been a phenomenon in American politics, bringing in record numbers of new voters and record funding, and few think the superdelegates would dare deny him victory if he wins the popular vote.
Falling poll numbers and a string of high-profile blunders have convinced party elders that she must now bow out of the primary race.
Former president Carter and former vice-president Gore have already held high-level discussions about delivering the message that she must stand down for the good of the Democrats.
"They're in discussions," a source close to Carter told Scotland on Sunday. "Carter has been talking to Gore. They will act, possibly together, or in sequence."
An appeal by both men for Democrats to unite behind Clinton's rival, Barack Obama, would have a powerful effect, and insiders say it is a question of when, rather than if, they act.
Obama has an almost unassailable lead in the battle for nomination delegates, and is closing the gap with Clinton in her last stronghold, Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22.
But the party's top brass have concluded her further participation in the race can only harm the party as Republican nominee John McCain strives to take advantage of her increasingly bitter battle with Obama.
In the 10 remaining primaries, only a catastrophic loss of support by Obama will see Clinton overcome his lead of 160 delegates.
Possible outcomes of the crucial Democrat primary of April 22.
Clinton wins big: A win of 20 points or more over Obama in Pennsylvania would keep Clinton's campaign alive. She would also have to replicate this result in the nine states still to vote, narrowing the gap with her rival and convincing the all-important party superdelegates to choose her as nominee.
Obama wins small: A single figure victory on Clinton's 'home turf' would cement Obama's claim to the nomination. Superdelegates would be likely to declare him the nominee before June.
Obama Closing Superdelegates Gap
John Whitesides, Reuters
Fri Apr 11
Obama has won more delegates, he's won more votes, he's raised more money, and now you see it happening with superdelegates too. - Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN.
If Obama notches a few more victories, it could become a stampede.
Most are moving to Obama.
Despite heavy courting by Clinton, most of the superdelegates who made up their minds since January backed Obama. Clinton's superdelegate lead dwindled to about 30 from 100 in that time.
A count by MSNBC gives Clinton 256 superdelegates to Obama's 225. Obama, an Illinois senator, has gained steam in the past month, winning more than two dozen new commitments, compared with a handful for Clinton, a New York senator.
"It has been a drip, drip, drip toward Obama," said Steven Schier, a political analyst at Carleton College in Minnesota.
"Superdelegates can see Obama's advantages growing, and it's pretty clear it's going to be very hard for Clinton to catch him," he said.
Conservative Republicans are worried that Barack Obama can unite this country Julia Sivlerman, AP
April 1, 2008
Talk radio hostess Victoria Taft, a familiar Republican voice in the Democratic-leaning Pacific Northwest, said that even in her wildest dreams, she never imagined urging her listeners to vote for Clinton.
"I want to vet (Illinois Senator) Barack Obama more than Hillary," said Taft, whose daily program during prime evening drive-time reaches about 30,000 people.
"We know what she is all about, but we don't know a stinking thing about him."
"We are sure there are Republicans who are switching to vote in our primary, whether they honestly want to vote or if they have more malicious purposes to try to get the candidate of their choice to run against," Vogel said.
Nick Shapiro, Obama's communications director in Oregon, said that if an organized effort to strategically cast conservative votes for Clinton did exist, it was a sign that
"conservative Republicans are worried that Barack Obama can unite this country, and will get support from not only the Democrats, but independents and Republicans and propel him into the White House."
The chance to participate was key for 19-year-old Bryant Stegall, a part-time student from Southern Oregon who said he's leaning toward Obama. If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, he said, he'd probably flip back to the Republican McCain.
Seventy-year-old Mary Nelke, of Ashland, Ore., said she made the switch because she's fallen for Obama and the promise she hears in his voice.
"Whether he is a Democrat or a Republican, he is our hope for the future," she said. "The economy is desperate, we need to make peace with the world. I am a grandmother -- I look, and I think, I have to stand up and do what I think is right."
Obama Tougher Foe for McCain, Dems, GOP Agree
Mark Silva, Baltimore Sun
April 1, 2008
Clearly at this point, the party rank-and-file thinks Obama would present a stronger challenge to McCain in the fall than Clinton would.
Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November:
59 percent said Obama does, and 30 percent said Clinton does.
Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama.
Sixty-four percent said McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, 22 percent said Obama.
Most rank - and - file Democrats also seem to agree that the divisive party primary is doing harm to the Democrats, according to the Gallup survey's results: 56 percent of Democrats surveyed said it is doing "more harm than good," while 35 percent said is doing "more good than harm."
Obama Catches Clinton in Support From Superdelegate Lawmakers
Nicholas Johnston and Lorraine Woellert
Bloomberg
April 3, 2008
Barack Obama has pulled even with Hillary Clinton in endorsements from top elected officials, with a
surge in support from congressional freshmen and governors from Republican-dominated states.
Obama, 46, is endorsed by 16 U.S. House freshmen to Clinton's 6, and 40 percent of his congressional allies are from "red states,'' or those that voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, compared with one-quarter for Clinton. That bolsters the Obama campaign's argument that
he would have broader backing in the general election.
"He is the highest evolution of what the voters were looking for,'' said Bernadette Budde, senior vice president of the Business-Industry Political Action Committee, a Washington-based group that works to elect pro-business lawmakers and hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate.
Vanishing Lead
Obama, an Illinois senator, has the support of 99 Democratic U.S. lawmakers and governors, compared with Clinton's 96 -- a dramatic turnabout since the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, when Clinton, a New York senator, had more than double Obama's support within this group, 91 to 43.
Freshmen lawmakers who support Obama said his candidacy shares a lot of the characteristics of their 2006 campaigns, which swept Democrats into congressional majorities.
"Many of us came in as a new breath of fresh air,'' said Representative Tim Walz of Minnesota.
Walz endorsed Obama after his congressional district backed the candidate in the state's Feb. 5 caucuses. "I went with the will of the people,'' he said.
Key delegates turn to Obama
Peter Nicholas, The Age (Australia)
April 5, 2008,
PDF archive
NEARLY three weeks remain before the next Democratic primary, but the results are rolling in from another part of the presidential contest—and
they signify trouble for Hillary Clinton.
Democratic Party officials and insiders known as super-delegates are jumping to Barack Obama's camp or signalling they are headed that way, including such prominent figures as former US president Jimmy Carter.
Even some super-delegates who say they are backing Senator Clinton have begun laying out scenarios under which they would abandon her for Senator Obama.
"My children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama," Mr Carter told a Nigerian newspaper during a visit to Africa.
"As a super-delegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for, but I leave you to make that guess."
Senator Obama has trounced Senator Clinton in the financial stakes by raising $US40 million... in March, twice as much as his Democratic Party rival before their next key White House nominating clash in Pennsylvania.
In December, according to an Associated Press tally,
Senator Clinton led Senator Obama by 106 super-delegates. In February, her lead had been cut to 87. As of Thursday, it was 30. On Wednesday, the same day Mr Carter hinted strongly at his intentions, Senator Obama won support from Wyoming Governor David Freudenthal, who had been appointed the state's US attorney by Senator Clinton's husband.
Senators Amy Klobuchar, of Minnesota, and Robert Casey, of Pennsylvania, in recent days abandoned plans to stay neutral in the competition. Both are opting for Senator Obama.
And in an embarrassment for Senator Clinton, one of the super-delegates supporting her, Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, predicted in an interview with a Canadian radio station at the weekend that Senator Obama would win both the nomination and the presidency.
Senator Obama is winning over super-delegates because "his arguments are more persuasive", said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster unaffiliated in the presidential race.
A major objective of Senator Clinton's super-delegate operation is keeping supporters from defecting. Working from her campaign headquarters, a team of aides stays in seemingly constant touch with super-delegates committed to her, sending them poll numbers and news articles meant to keep them from bolting.
"It's a slow drip, drip, drip—but it's dripping the wrong way," said Joe Trippi, who was an adviser to former Democratic candidate John Edwards.
"Psychologically, they're playing defence with super-delegates, not offence."
Some super-delegates in Senator Clinton's camp have suggested they might reconsider if she cannot meet certain goals, such as overcoming Senator Obama's lead in the popular vote total.
At this point, with 10 contests remaining, he has won about 700,000 more votes than she has. That tally excludes the votes in Florida and Michigan, which are not being recognised by the national Democratic Party.
Clinton aides would prefer that super-delegates consider a broader set of criteria, such as which candidate is likely to be more electable, or who ran the strongest in pivotal states such as Florida and Ohio. It is not clear that argument is resonating.
U N C O M M I T T E D (4)
 • Catherine Cortez Masto, (Send email) NV State Attorney General,
CCM may be a tougher nut to crack than we first thought.
With the legendary discipline and rigor that have marked her entire career, Cortez Masto paints a portrait of herself as an entirely apolitical professional, an image that seems odd given her lineage.
-Las Vegas Sun, 20 Apr 08.
After reading the above article I get two hunches: One she's viewing her decision politically so may wait for the presumptive nominee to be clearer so she can say, as Harry Reid will, she got behind the winner.
The second hunch is that she may declare soon after PA because she can clearly see the numbers game is up for C and she would be backing the winner by endorsing O. We can gently remind her that no one can can refute the momentum for Barack in the state wherein nearly every single county has given him more delegates at their county conventions while C's delegate numbers remain static.
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 • Sam Lieberman, (Send email) Chair, NV State Democratic Party (Clark County) Has worked on two Clinton campaigns in the past, but is quoted in the New York Times recently, If it had been a blowout for one candidate, I would have probably gone with the Nevada candidate. Because of how close it was ... it will probably play only a small role in my decision.
As the top party official in the state—an elected office—do you think Sam will share with us his torturous process? How will he arrive, or even better, WHEN will he arrive at his decision? And what will play a big role?
April 23, From NVPoliticker.com
"[I] definitely won't start thinking about it until after our convention in Reno in May."
Lieberman takes a strict interpretation of state Democratic bylaws that state party officials may be removed for, among other things, "endorsing or demonstrating official aid or support of one Democratic candidate over another in a primary election," but agrees with DNC Chairman Howard Dean that superdelegates should express their preference prior to July 1. [Hopefully's he's noted that Dean corrected himself to declaring "now" (on 17 Apr) and no later than immediately after 3 June primary. See vid by clicking "Next" in upper right].
"I will not go to the [national] convention uncommitted," said Lieberman.
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•
Harry Reid, (
Send email) US Senator.
The most powerful man in Washington! Reid's son, Rory, ran the nightmarish Nevada Clinton campaign. Though the Senator is an ardent supporter of the caucus because "NV registered 30,000 new Dems in one hour"
1 (Please. It wasn't the caucus that got people registered, it was the candidates. The same happens whether
primary or caucus.), he might be feeling the sting from the Clinton campaign which worked against the caucus in NV: first by
the lawsuit it supported against the union that did not endorse her (unions are what NV touted as getting the state
the early caucus). Second, by the
organized disruption of the caucuses by Clinton supporters throughout the state: trying to take over the caucus from Dem Party trained volunteers and preventing voters from participating past 11:30a; calling in to the help line to change votes ½ hour after the caucus was closed (Hidden Valley), promoting
lies at the caucus that were the
same as in her mailer that Barack does not support a women's right to choose and is for Yucca Mountain. Lies, damnable lies.
Reid got the early caucus for Nevada. What did every Dem have to do? Stand up for their candidate. When? Early. Way early. Did most people want to do it? No, they want a primary and a secret ballot. Did they do it anyway? Yes.
What excites a lot of us about Obama is his leadership. He talks. He acts. The actions are what lead many of us to believe in him. Senator Reid has asked us to act but stands a dull neutral late in the game, seemingly hiding in the shadows, giving the appearance he is above it all. Not what you think of as inspiring leadership. C'mon Harry! Where's "Giving 'em hell?" What makes you exempt from an early stand after foisting it on all Nevadans?
We know Harry knows the score. We know he knows that it isn't the candidates that are protracting this campaign, it's the supers. It's time. Your consituents need you to do what we did: declare one way or another so we can unite against McCain who
gains daily by this dalliance.
HARRY! STAND UP FOR YOUR CANDIDATE!
E N D O R S I N G C L I N T O N (2)
Write them and let them know why you support Senator Obama over Senator Clinton. It's not too late for them to switch.
• Shelley Berkley, (Send email) US Representative from Las Vegas
• Dina Titus, (Send email) State Senate Minority Leader Will Dina Titus bend to the will of the people in the state she serves? Obama has 13 national delegates to Clinton's 12. Nearly every single county convention gave Barack significantly higher numbers while Clinton's numbers went down or remained static. The momentum in Nevada is for Obama. Time to switch!
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